Час 36

К счастью, самые значительные осадки быстро покинули территорию с момента последнего обновления прогноза.

Радиолокационная отражаемость за период 30-36 ч.

Общее количество осадков за второй период меньше, но хорошо согласуется с КПО, хотя и немного ниже.

Суммарные осадки по спутниковым данным

Blended infrared-microwave rain totals from approximately 16 hours to 36 hours into the forecast period.  The maximum precipitation (about 105 mm) occurred near eastern Mystery and far western Main basins within a band of higher values extending southeastward through central Mainstem Basin.

Суммарные осадки по данным радиолокатора

Radar storm total precipitation from approximately 16 hours to 36 hours into the forecast period.  The maximum precipitation (about 125 mm) occurred in central Mainstem basin within a band of higher values that runs from northwest to southeast across south-central Mainstem basin.

Затем, Альфонсо и Мэй анализируют самые последние наблюденные и прогнозные гидрографы.

Средняя

Forecast and observed hydrographs for Mystery basin river gauge. Flow increased quickly shortly after hour 6 up to about a stage of 2.5 m at 12 hours before decreasing to 1.0 at about 20 hours.  Then stage level continued to rise to about 4.9 m at 36 hours.  Flow is predicted to increase steadily and should peak around 5.1 m at about 39 hours.

Вестерн

Forecast and observed hydrographs for Western basin river gauge, from 24 hour model run. Flow increased quickly shortly after hour 6 up to about a stage of 3.0 m at 12 hours, and then stabilized briefly before creeping upward to about 4.0 m at 14 hours.  Flow then decreased to a stage of about 2.0 m at 22 hours, and charted a steady increase to 4.5 at 36 hours.  Flow is predicted to steadily increase and should peak around 4.8 m at about 40 hours.

р. Верхняя - пост 1

Forecast and observed hydrograph for Lucky River at location of gauge #1, at 36 hours.  Observations show flow varying and increasing slighty through 16 hours, followed by a steady increase to a stage of about 5 m at 36 hours.  The new forecast hydrograph shows flow leveling off in the subsequent hour and beginning to decrease at hour 37.

р. Верхняя - пост 2

Forecast and obsrved hydrographs for Lucky River at location of gauge #2.  Observations show that flow varied around usual baseflow levels for the first 20 hours and then began a steady increase to about 6.5 m stage level.  The forecast shows a continued, steady increase in streamflow values until about 40 hours, when flow will peak at a stage of about 8.3m, which is just slightly above flood stage (8.2 m)

р. Великая - пост 1

Forecast and observed hydrographs for Main River at location of gauge #1.  Observations show that flow varied around usual baseflow levels for the first 20 hours before increasing slightly to a stage of about  7.5 m at 36 hours.  The forecast is a steady and rapid increase in streamflow values until about 52 hours, when a peak of about 14.0, which is about 1 m below record stage.

Альфонсо и Мэй рады видеть, что река Верхняя в районе города Верхний остается в своих берегах. Наводнение в бассейнах рек Западная и Средняя в ближайшие часы, скорее всего, пойдет на спад. Но на других участках реки ситуация не столь радостная. По-прежнему есть опасение, что на реке Великая будут достигнуты рекордные уровни. Мэй обновляет публичное заявление и не отходит от телефона, готовая отвечать на вопросы официальных лиц.